Wednesday, July 26, 2006

>pamal...Les marchés de prédiction

Plus efficaces que Madame Irma ou que Paco Rabanne, les marchés permettraient maintenant de prédire l'avenir!

Quel est le moyen le plus fiable pour les majors d'Hollywood d'anticiper le succès des films?
Et bien c'est de regarder les cours des films sur le Hollywood Stock Exchange, où une communauté s'échange des "futures", options négociables s'échangeant in fine pour la valeur d'un sous-jacent (les entrées en salle au bout de x semaines par exemple).


Vous voulez savoir qui gagnera les élections? Consulter les résultats de l'Iowa Electronic Market. Lors des dernières élections américaines, il s'est avéré plus fiable que les principaux sondages. Pas même besoin d'un échantillon représentatif: un groupe diversifié, décentralisé et dont les individus agissent en tout indépendance suffit généralement à obtenir des résultats.

Attention, ils n'ont pas toujours raison mais il semble que, statistiquement, en faisant émerger une "pensée collective", ils sont meilleurs que les experts. C'est ce qu'expliquait James Surowiecki dans The Wisdom of Crowds.

Ca n'est pas un hasard si Google, HP, les services de renseignement américains ont déjà utilisé ou songé à utiliser ce type d'outil en interne pour prédire des événements...

On devrait assister au développement de ces marchés d'information dans les prochaines années, même si cela nécessitera un changement culturel : l'avis des experts nous paraîtra meilleur parce qu'argumenté alors qu'il sera dans bien des cas statistiquement moins fiable.

Pour la route, deux autres marchés d'information:
newsfutures et tradesports


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